FOMC and gold: what the Fed decision does to XAU/USD
Eight times a year the Fed sets rates and gold reprices. Why the press conference usually moves the metal more than the decision, and what our strategy has done on those days.
2 min read·Published 22 August 2026 · figures updated 25 August 2026
Of the three scheduled events that move gold hardest, FOMC is the strangest to trade - because the number everyone waits for is usually the one that moves the market least.
What happens on an FOMC day
The Federal Open Market Committee sets US interest rates. It meets eight times a year, and on decision day the schedule runs like this:
•2:00 p.m. New York time - the rate decision and the statement.
•2:30 p.m. - the Chair's press conference.
•At four of the eight meetings, the 2:00 p.m. release also includes the Summary of Economic Projections, containing the 'dot plot' - where each official expects rates to go.
The decision itself is usually well telegraphed in advance; by decision day the market has typically priced it with high confidence. So the surprise is rarely in the number.
Why the press conference matters more
The surprise is in the guidance - what the statement's wording implies about the next few meetings, and what the Chair says when questioned. A cut delivered alongside a caution that no more are coming can send gold down; a hold delivered alongside a dovish tone can send it up.
This produces the pattern that catches people out: a sharp move at 2:00 p.m., then a larger and sometimes opposite move from 2:30 as the press conference runs. Positioning for the decision and then leaving is how traders end up on the wrong side of the day's real move.
What our own strategy did on FOMC days
This is the part no other page can show you: what a specific rules-based gold strategy actually did on these exact dates. It covers 5 verified FOMC releases, and it grows by one each time another one happens.
Net across 5 releases
+1,700.6p
Average per day traded
+340.1p
5 of 5 traded
Legs closed
27
Win rate
50%
break-evens excluded
Every trade behind those figures
29 July 20263 legs-997.3p
17 June 20264 legs+1,783.7p
29 April 20262 legs-493.8p
18 March 20264 legs-1,121.5p
28 January 202614 legs+2,529.5p
Losing days included. Every figure above recomputes from the live trade log and refreshes on its own about once a minute.
The one thing worth remembering
FOMC afternoons are the least predictable liquidity conditions of the month in gold. The move can reverse more than once inside half an hour, and stop orders can fill well away from where they were placed. Whatever else you do, this is the wrong day to be carrying more size than usual.
Verified FOMC dates and our record on each are on the news page.